Fife by-election: soul searching and celebrations as Farage factor makes its mark
The bouquet of flowers discreetly brought into the room by SNP supporters just minutes before the result was declared gave the clearest hint who last night’s by-election winner was. The hugs in the counting room summed up the mood of jubilation for one party - and the start of some late night soul-searching for another.
Ann Marie Caldwell’s comfortable victory in the Buckhaven, Methil and West Wemyss by-election signalled an immediate shift in the balance of power on Levenmouth’s area committee. She effectively served notice on current convener, Labour’s Colin Davidson, that things were changing, with her husband Ken - also a ward councillor - almost certain to move into his seat at the next meeting.
The committee has always worked together for the betterment of the area, but it will be interesting to see how one led by the SNP sets out its stall when it comes to local spending decisions.
The result also threw up some much bigger questions for Labour after it not only lost the seat once held by the disgraced and jailed David Graham, but were shunted into third place by Reform.
In 2022, Graham polled over 1200 votes. Last night, first time candidate Donna Donnelly saw that cut to 778 as Reform’s Mark Davies took 1080.
That still wasn’t enough to deliver the electoral breakthrough Nigel Farage’s party had hoped for - an outright win - after throwing everything it had at the campaign with supporters and activists coming from Aberdeen and the west coast to work the streets, but it was a warning shot of what may lie ahead.
In April, Reform took some 18% of the vote in Glenrothes Central and Thornton by-election at the expense of the Lib Dems and Tory votes. This time they scythed a chunk out of Labour’s vote, albeit with the caveat of low turnouts of 26% and 27% respectively. The stay at homes have to be factored in.
All eyes will be on the Glenrothes by-election in January - a vacant SNP seat in their heartland, but one Reform will look to gain a further foothold in Fife’s political scene.
The Farage factor may have hit Labour’s vote in Buckhaven, but one political observer pointed a finger much closer to home: “Starmer is less popular here than Thatcher” he said. The toxic legacy of Graham’s incarceration may also have been responsible for turning off some voters.
That said, the party remains at the helm of Fife Council as a minority administration, but it leaves itself wide open to the SNP’s regular jibes over a coalition with the Tories - and now Reform which has two councillors following defections. In politics, mud sticks, particularly if the ‘coalition’ line is spun regularly, and the SNP take great delight in using the ‘C’ word as often as they can in the debating chamber.
Labour started out with 20 councillors and are now down to 18. The SNP have moved from 34 to 35 - they are now three short of the number that would have given them a majority administration at the last local authority election.
With support from the 13 Lib Dem councillors and six Tories, Labour can still push through its agenda, but it would only take a couple of absences from the chamber - or a hint of dissent or fall-out - to open the door to the SNP to prevail on any issue. The nationalists could up the ante by woo-ing the two Reform councillors, but that’s almost certainly a step too far.
While Labour ponders how to reclaim its support from Reform, the other parties also have much to mull over.
The Buckhaven result was an absolute wipe out for everyone else. It was never fertile ground for the Tories, but a handful of votes - 64 in total - was about as low as it can get, while the Lib Dems’ 99 returns underlined how badly the party’s support has withered outwith its heartland of north-east Fife, and Alba’s 83 votes was poor. Only the Sovereignty Party fared worse with 45 votes.