A new Scottish think tank has published an interactive which shows Fife among the regions of Scotland with the lowest risk of coronavirus transmission.

The data, published by Scotianomics, gives a detailed picture of which communities face the greatest threat - and the organisation says that could help to shape our route out of lockdown.

That could mean schools and businesses opening earlier, or later, depending on the specific level of risk within local communities - and that could be good news for the Kingdom.

The colour coded interactive map shows Fife’s threat - based on council wards - falls well within the low to lowest risk categories. None fall within the high risk red category.

The Community Risk Index (CRI) figures range from 23.9 in Dunfermline Central to 59.2 in East Neuk.

To put that in context, wards in Inverclyde top the table with ratings of 112, Ayr West is at 101, Paisley Southwest 97.4, and Corstorphine and Murrayfield in Edinburgh at 94.5. Lochee in Dundee is at 93.6. The lower rungs of the table include places such as Inverness in 14.

The research, which was conducted during April, does not factor in actual infection rates or fatalities. It is based on existing data for Scotland’s 354 local authority wards and calculates each area’s risk of exposure according to two factors - transmission probability and potential for fatalities.

But the team behind it believes, it could help shape Scottish Government and council thinking on how to re-start business and services as lockdown restrictions are eased.

The data has Glenrothes Central in 26.4, and Glenrothes West, Leslie and Markinch on 31.5

Burntisland, Kinghorn and Kirkcaldy West are at 33.1, compared to 45.7 for Kirkcaldy East, 55.7 for Kirkcaldy North.

Leven, Kennoway and Largo are at 49.3, Cupar 53.5, and Howe of Fife at 36.6

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Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp, founding director of Scotianomics in Glasgow, said: “The public and business reaction to Coronavirus is highly-charged and often emotional. We believe this geographic breakdown can help the national response to provide clear analysis of existing data

“What is evident is that, for a wide variety of reasons, the risks vary hugely in different communities across Scotland. In terms of both the economy and health and well-being, we believe it makes sense to ease the lockdown according to those regional differences in risk.

“There has already been a great deal of debate on whether the four nations within the UK should ease restrictions in lockstep, despite the fact that Oban is likely to have a completely different risk profile to Tower Hamlets in London. What our research shows is that there are also significant variations even within Scotland.

The data used in the calculations included population density; how many older people or those with underlying health conditions live in the area; how many people use road and rail travel; how easy or otherwise it is to access local health services; socio-economic factors, such as the average income of residents in each area.

Mr MacIntyre-Kemp added: “We want to be absolutely clear. This is nothing to do with the number of cases in an area or how well people living in each area have observed the lockdown. It is not a map of COVID-19 cases across Scotland but of the areas most at risk of community infection.

“However, what it sets out very clearly is that the risks of transmission and the likelihood of fatalities within particular communities can be predicted with a high degree of confidence.

“Our findings suggested that Inverclyde was the most at risk community in Scotland, taking up the top six spots on the index. That has been borne out by the actual impact of COVID-19 in the area.

“This clearly demonstrates the scope to consider issues such as schools reopening on Orkney to a different timescale to Greenock.

“We already have a weather warning system with yellow, amber or red alerts which are adapted to different parts of Scotland. Likewise, schools have different holidays in different council areas, all of which suggest that a phased reopening of Scotland, and indeed the rest of the UK, would not be that complex.

“It is our hope that this kind of fact-based, data-driven research will help shape the Scottish Government’s plans to get the best possible outcomes for both public health and the economy, by lifting lockdown according to the very different risks in different areas.”

https://www.scotianomics.org/covid19-risk-monitor/

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